Tomorrow afternoon for those in Rome or tomorrow morning for those in the U.S. (May 7, 2025 15:45 CEST), the Cardinals will take the short trip from their temporary housing at Casa Santa Marta to the Sistine Chapel of the Apostolic Palace to begin the conclave to elect the 267th Supreme Pontiff of the Catholic Church.
While I’m sure some elements of the movie Conclave are realistic enough, I would not hold that it accurately depicts the actual event any more than I would count NCIS as the full and true story of what the Navy’s investigative team does daily.
With a support team nearby sworn to secrecy under pain of excommunication (i.e., kicked out of the Church until they repent), the Cardinals will lock themselves alone in a room to vote for the next Pope.
They’ll begin with an oath:
We, the Cardinal electors present in this election of the Supreme Pontiff promise, pledge and swear, as individuals and as a group, to observe faithfully and scrupulously the prescriptions contained in the Apostolic Constitution of the Supreme Pontiff John Paul II, Universi Dominici Gregis, published on 22 February 1996. We likewise promise, pledge and swear that whichever of us by divine disposition is elected Roman Pontiff will commit himself faithfully to carrying out the munus Petrinum of Pastor of the Universal Church and will not fail to affirm and defend strenuously the spiritual and temporal rights and the liberty of the Holy See. In a particular way, we promise and swear to observe with the greatest fidelity and with all persons, clerical or lay, secrecy regarding everything that in any way relates to the election of the Roman Pontiff and regarding what occurs in the place of the election, directly or indirectly related to the results of the voting; we promise and swear not to break this secret in any way, either during or after the election of the new Pontiff, unless explicit authorization is granted by the same Pontiff; and never to lend support or favour to any interference, opposition or any other form of intervention, whereby secular authorities of whatever order and degree or any group of people or individuals might wish to intervene in the election of the Roman Pontiff.
Each of the Cardinal electors, according to the order of precedence, will then take the oath according to the following formula:
And I, N. Cardinal N., do so promise, pledge and swear. Placing his hand on the Gospels, he will add: So help me God and these Holy Gospels which I touch with my hand.
The oath is found in paragraph 53 of Universi Dominci Gregis (UDG), which you can read the Latin version from the Vatican website. (My kingdom for the Vatican to use HTML anchors in their texts!)
The Cardinals will generally vote up to four times a day—twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon. When there is an affirmative vote for the next pope, white smoke will pour from the most-watched chimney in the world. The two sets of morning ballots will be burned together if there is no supermajority before lunch. The two sets of afternoon ballots will be burned together.
In other words, we expect black smoke twice daily—around 12:00 p.m. CEST and 7:00 p.m. CEST until we get the white smoke.
The actual voting process will look like the movies for the most part. Further down in UDG (62ff), it is outlined in detail. Each cardinal will handwrite their choice on a ballot and walk to the front individually. They’ll say an oath: I call as my witness Christ the Lord who will be my judge, that my vote is given to the one who before God I think should be elected.
He places the folded ballot on a paten/plate, then tips the plate so the ballot falls into a chalice. There are cardinals, picked by lottery, who will take a locked box to any cardinals too ill to make it to the chapel to collect their ballots. Likewise, anyone in the chapel, but unable to walk to the front, can give their ballot to another cardinal to place in the chalice.
Three cardinals review the ballots. First, they ensure the total ballots match the expected total submitted. If a mismatch occurs, those ballots are thrown out to be burned, and a new vote is taken. The three cardinals then open and review the ballots to ensure they agree on the name written and that they look in order. If they suspect two ballots are from the same cardinal, both are thrown out, but the overall round is valid.
The cardinals in these special roles are all selected by lottery, which rotates.
Once there is a supermajority, the elected is asked “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” And, if he accepts, he is asked: By what name do you wish to be called?”
While extremely doubtful, the Cardinals are not limited to choosing one of themselves for the role. Technically, any baptized male could be elected. If the newly elected Pope is not a bishop, he must be ordained immediately before anything further happens. The timing isn’t completely clear to me, but I believe the ordination would occur in the Sistine Chapel right then.
There are also guidelines if the elected individual is absent from the Vatican. But realistically, it will be a cardinal, and he’ll be in the room already.
After that, some paperwork is signed, some white smoke pours out, and the new Pope puts on “the last suit [he] will ever wear” (Men In Black style).
The Cardinal Protodeacon will step onto the loggia overlooking St. Peter’s Square and announce, “Habemus papam” — we have a Pope.
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