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COVID in Austin Update (July 22)

Sports

To catch up with links from yesterday, UIL released updated calendars for the fall activities. Gov. Abbott during his nightly television interviews also said that if districts/health officials wanted to delay activities further, that is fine by him. Basically, he said it should be a local decision.

When Gov. Abbott isn’t treating the virus like a political football, he’s actually not horrible at this.

In other news, the Southwestern Athletic Conference, which includes Prairie View A&M and Texas Southern, has announced they are moving football to the spring this year. The Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference, which includes Texas Lutheran, announced it won’t hold Fall sports this year.

Education

While Travis County schools are physically closed until after Labor Day, Tarrant County (Fort Worth) will keep schools physically closed until September 28th. Harris County (Houston), one of the harder hit areas, only suggested schools take advantage of TEA’s 8-week allowed phase-in (four week automatically allowed + four additional weeks allowed via school board vote), but is not mandating it. (Houston ISD had already announced they will waiting six weeks at this point.)

Rental Assistance

The City of Austin is making $13 million available to help with rental assistance and Travis County will extend the ban on evictions through September 30th.

Travis County won’t let new notices to vacate—the first step of the eviction process—be filed until then. The various JP courts have also paused existing eviction processes until the end of September.

State of Texas

  • 9,879 new cases today.
  • 197 new deaths—a new record (previous 174 on the 17th).
  • 10,892 hospitalized—a new record.
  • 14.18% positivity.

Sharing a few graphs now.

New Cases
Deaths
Positivity

All in all, I’m encouraged. We are still very far from over, but masks work. Hopefully it is enough and we won’t need additional orders.

Travis County (Austin)

Since I missed a full report yesterday, I’ll report both days’ numbers:

MetricJuly 21July 22
New Cases603302
Deaths9 (record)4
Hospitalized459453
ICU153160 (record)
Ventilators106111 (record)
Hospital Admits5758
7 day rolling avg63.460.6

How to break this down? In short, we are trending better, but we aren’t out of the woods.

Our new cases, based on 7-day rolling average:

Hospitalizations have flat-lined, but new admissions have been slowly dropping. Deaths are still rising, but I’d expect that to lag just a bit behind the others.

We’re still far from being out of the woods. Not at all time to back off yet, but what we’re doing does seem to be making some difference.

I don’t want to minimize things. They’re still bad. Hospitals are still strained. The Austin Convention Center Field Hospital hasn’t opened because, in part, staffing concerns. with the City’s medical professionals overtaxed.

But, maybe there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

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Current Events

Not Really A COVID in Austin Update (July 21)

This isn’t really my normal update. Someone in the family is under the weather and the doctor’s appointment turned into a long ER visit. Everything is fine now and nothing COVID related, but it’s past 10 pm and I haven’t had dinner. Forgive me!

Quickly, though, in passing, UIL announced guidelines for fall sports in Texas public schools. For the larger 5A and 6A schools, fall sports are delayed until later in September. Smaller schools can start on time (beginning of August for practices).

Eastside High is the only 4A school that I can think of off the top of my head in AISD that could start in August, but the County Health Order already will force them to wait until after Labor Day anyhow since it suspends extracurricular activities too.

All schools, though, must wait for marching band. No band camp this year.

Meanwhile, California announced fall sports will start in 2021.

In terms of numbers, Texas hospitalizations hit a new record high and our deaths were high again. I’ll recap everything in full for tomorrow’s post.

Within Austin, we had 600 and someodd cases. Hospitalizations and hospitalization admits were still lower than we had been seeing. Deaths, though, we saw 9 of them reported today. That’s a single-day high.

As deaths are the metric with the longest lead time, it makes sense we’re going to see increasing and higher deaths for some time until the flattening/decrease catches up.

Anyhow, back tomorrow in normal fighting shape.

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Current Events

COVID in Austin Update (July 20)

News

Really, I didn’t see that much come across my desk that I thought was COVID notable today.

State of Texas

Mondays are often slow coming off the weekend.

  • 7,404 new cases.
  • 62 deaths — we now have over 4,000 lab-confirmed deaths in Texas.
  • 10,569 in the hospital. A slight decrease. We’re seemingly maybe flattening the curve.

This doesn’t take into account specific areas. I’m hearing personal accounts that the RGV is still really struggling within the clinical environments.

Travis County (Austin)

Today, while Monday, dare I say look mostly good.

  • 145 new cases. Lowest since July 4th, which itself was an oddball. June 22nd was the date before that we had a lower number.
  • 6 deaths. That’s not good. 5.29 is now our 7day rolling average, a new record high.
  • 480 in the hospital and 158 in the ICU. Exactly the same as yesterday which strikes me as odd. I’ll check later tonight and update in case there’s some delay there.
  • 108 on vents, slightly lower, which I don’t really think of that good of a sign given 6 deaths.
  • Only 43 new admissions. Our lowest since June 22nd. The average there fell to the lowest since July 1: 65.8.

Sharing Without Comment

Or without much of one.

🙃

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Current Events

COVID in Austin Update (July 19)

Education Beat

While TAPPS—the coordinating body for private schools—announced that Fall sports will begin in late September, we expect UIL—the coordinating body for public schools (and a couple of private schools who have opted into competition against public schools)—will be meeting tomorrow to decide the next plan for Falls sports.

With the Travis County Health Order, the start of the season is already cancelled until after Labor Day.

Send in the Navy!

The Navy has sent medical personnel to south Texas—Harlingen, Del Rio, Eagle Pass, and Rio Grande City—to augment local staffing due to the crush of hospital patients.

The Austin Convention Center Field Hospital opens tomorrow, but it may not see patients. Thankfully, our hospitalization rate has stopped climbing so fast. Hopefully the field hospital and the extra morgue trailers we have on hand from FEMA aren’t needed.

There was a since-deleted post from someone claiming to be a nurse at St. David’s South Austin Hospital (near S. 1st and 290) who made the situation there sound dire. KVUE confirmed from one of their sources that the details were accurate and reposted the post.

I don’t share this to drive up fear or anything like that. Only that while I talk about numbers on a daily basis, there are real people behind those numbers—not just the 400 and something currently in the hospital, or the 70 a day being admitted into one, or the 200+ people who have died—but those who are maintaining the health care system.

Staying home and wearing a mask helps everyone by keeping people from needing to add more stress on the system yes, but more importantly, the individuals who make up the system.

Support Local Media

Just a quick shout out for KUT.

I’ve been following Matt for awhile and a number of other KUT reporters. While I personally review a lot of the different datasets on a regular basis, I don’t do it daily. I’d miss things like noting that yesterday’s 239—while sounding low—was only based on about 1000 tests, giving us a 24% positivity, which is bananas high.

KUT announced they are starting voluntary furloughs and early retirements due to budget shortfall. As a non-profit public service funded primarily by the community, if you’re a listener and able to donate or donate more, head that way.

State of Texas

  • 7,300 new cases—a big drop, but Sunday/Mondays typically are low due to the weekend.
  • 93 new deaths reported. A bit lower than the last few days, but would have been a record high about a week ago.
  • 15.03% positivity. Lowest we’ve seen in the last 10 days, but still way about the 10% “red alert” line.
  • 10,592 hospitalized. This is stable—only less than 100 fewer than yesterday.

Travis County (Austin)

  • 192 new cases (weekend dip).
  • 0 deaths. First no-death day in about 10 days. Could be lack of reporting due to the weekend.
  • 480 hospitalized.
  • 158 in the ICU—over a week we’ve stayed in the 150s.
  • 110 on ventilators, a new record high.
  • 63 new admissions, making our 7-day average 69.4.

In Closing…

Did y’all see the Fox News interview with President Trump this morning? I try to stay reserved and don’t get too political in these posts.

But, the President is living in a different reality than the rest of the country. Vox reporter Aaron Rupar tweeted out a good number of clips from it—I couldn’t immediately find the full interview on the Fox News website. Click through the Twitter for a full thread of clips.

The claim that our increase of testing is why our numbers are spiking just isn’t true. Yes, our testing has increased, but our number of cases have increased faster. Hospitalization rate isn’t due to testing.

While the New York area, which really got slammed very hard when much of the country was spared, is doing much better, the southern states (at least) are all doing far worse than we were earlier in the pandemic.

Seeing how impacted we all are by this, how strained our medical system is, how supply chain and testing chains are stretched, and seeing that not only is there no leadership coming out of Washington on this topic, but there isn’t even awareness of reality. That’s getting to me maybe even more than the mitigation efforts we’re doing in La Casa de Kraft.

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Current Events

COVID in Austin Update (July 18)

New Study Regarding Child Transmission

I usually avoid the national news or politics in these posts, but wanted to share a new study. The New York Times wrote about it, but the CDC has the technical scoop.

The summary is a study out of South Korea indicate that children 10-19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults. It suggests that children in that age group there actually spread it more than adults, but there may be behavioral things in play (e.g. they spread as much as adults plus less likely to comply with behavioral rules regarding spacing, hand-washing, as adults… at least Korean adults. Their kids might be on-par with some Americans, but I digress.)

Meanwhile, a group of Texas teachers protested via caravan at the Capitol today.

Around the State

  • 10,158 new cases (5th day in a row of 10k)
  • 130 new deaths (2nd highest after yesterday)
  • 10,658 hospitalized (new record)
  • 16.05% positivity.

The national news outlets have started paying attention to Corpus Christi. The particular headlines are about the 85 babies who have tested positive. I’ve mentioned Corpus before as having virtually no ICU room left (currently 4, but they went as low as 2 a couple of days ago) and their county’s rate of infection is at the top of the list for the state.

Travis County

  • 239 new cases.
  • 7 new deaths — this puts our 7-day rolling average to a new high of an even 5 per day. This also puts us at over 200 deaths for Travis County.
  • 466 hospitalized.
  • 77 new hospital admits (70.8 7day-avg).
  • 151 in the ICU.
  • 105 on ventilators (new record).

I learned today that The University of Texas at Austin has their own dashboard for specifically tracking the university community. The UT community has had 500 cases via self-reports (I presume people who were tested off-campus and reporting it to the university) or students/staff who were tested at UT Health (the clinical arm of the med school) or University Health Services (student clinic). Per Megan Menchaca, the managing editor of the student The Daily Texan, in the last 10 days, there are 120 new student reports and 45 new staff/faculty reports.

Considering in-person classes aren’t meeting, that’s interesting. Dorms open August 20th.

Other Things

This is a Twitter thread worth reading by Andy Slavitt, former Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services from 2015-2017.

Categories
Current Events

COVID in Austin Update (July 17)

Got to this late today, so just a quick couple things and the numbers.

State GOP Convention

I thought I wouldn’t be bringing this back up, but bust out the popcorn. 🍿

Judge Lynn Hughes, a Federal judge of the Southern District of Texas, issued a ruling that the State GOP Convention can use the Houston convention center this weekend or next weekend.

The convention, which is ongoing now as a virtual event, faced a few technical problems that led to hours-long delays and a postponement of today’s activities.

It doesn’t sound like they’re going to utilize this new option unless they can’t figure out how to join the Zoom tomorrow.

Public Education Update

TSA’s teased revised rules finally dropped. Basically, instead of three weeks to transition to on-campus learning (what districts have generally used to delay the start of on-campus), the TEA extends that to four weeks with an additional four weeks allowed if there is a school board vote.

They are also going to have some hold harmless calculations for the funding of the first two six weeks. The TEA notes this is the same processed used after Hurricane Harvey, which is basically calculating the expected attendance based on the past few years worth of data and using that as a minimum-level of support.

Lastly, the TEA does specifically fund hybrid models. Before, while their documentation mentioned hybrid learning, it wasn’t clear how attendance would count toward funding.

Private Education Update

Religious schools, to be specific, hit the news today. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton released a letter to religious to let them know that either the TEA rules nor local health authority orders. Really.

Sigh.

Meanwhile, the Diocese of Austin released their guidelines for how to operate schools when they reopen.

State of Texas

San Antonio’s Mayor had an explainer about the revision of San Antonio’s official count-per-the-state that I mentioned yesterday:

Makes sense to me.

The numbers:

  • 10,256 new cases.
  • 174 deaths (new record, +45 from yesterday’s record)
  • 10,632 hospitalized (new record)
  • 17.43% positivity (new record, from 16.89%)

Travis County (Austin)

  • 232 new cases, a relatively light day when looking at the last couple of weeks.
  • 7 new deaths.
  • 469 hospitalized (second day of decline after 492 record on Wednesday).
  • 158 ICU — this bounced a bit. It was a record-high of 159 two days ago.
  • 102 on ventilators (-1 from yesterday’s record).
  • 64 new hospital admissions today, which brought down out 7-day rolling admissions average to 70.3