As expected, yesterday’s executive order allows local authorities to now limit outdoor gatherings of 10 or more people. The executive order gives the authority to counties for unincorporated areas and mayors for incorporated areas.
Travis County and the City of Austin has prohibited outdoor gatherings of 10 or more. With a quick skim of the previous executive orders, I think this is the first one that states that county judges and mayors have equal authority with outdoor gatherings and other cities in Travis County (Lakeway, West Lake Hills, etc) announced the 100-person prohibition as “per County order”.
Today was pretty quiet. I suppose a lot of folks were on holiday today. Speaking of the holiday, I know testing in Austin will be taking a holiday so I would anticipate an immediate dip in new cases in the next few days to account for that. I’m not going to read much into any decrease in new cases until later next week.
Just as a reminder to my Catholic friends, the obligation to attend Mass in the Diocese of Austin is still dispensed for those concerned about getting the virus. Additionally, you can attend a Mass without receiving communion. There is absolute spiritual grace in attending Mass without receiving. Priests are people too, so let’s keep their safety in mind too. Fr. Henry Cuellar at St. William’s in Round Rock announced he has a positive test result. Keep him, and all impacted, in your prayers tonight.
On the baseball front, unrelated to Texas, there was a video on Twitter of how the Red Sox are keeping their players spaced out. They have converted their box suites into mini-locker rooms for a couple of players each.
If you’ve been watching MLB news, they did change a few playing rules this season. Some are more gameplay related (extra innings start with a runner on 2nd to help games not extend into too many innings), but others are very obviously virus-related. Get within six feet of an umpire to argue a call? You’re out of the game.
While I do strongly feel it is not worth trying to play youth sports right now—my little baseball league simply doesn’t have the financial or human resources or the educational knowledge to pull this off well, in my opinion—maybe, maybe some pro sports can figure out something.
State of Texas
New record for hospitalizations, again. 7,652 are in the hospital statewide. We had two tiny decreases on two separated days, but otherwise, we’ve setting a new record daily since June 8.
We had 7,555 new cases. The third-highest amount after yesterday’s 2nd highest, and Wednesday’s current record.
We had 50 deaths since yesterday. That’s the 4th highest daily number all-time, so not the obvious upward record-setting trend that we’ve had with cases and hospitalizations, but trending higher slowly.
Travis County (Austin)
While noting it is a holiday, so some testing locations are closed and there will likely be weird results for the next few days, here are today’s counts.
Our new daily count is the lowest all week with 314 new cases, putting us over 11,000 total cases.
We had one more death, pushing our 7-day average to 2.57/day. Not the highest, but still creeping up.
We’ve set a new record for both regular bed and ICU census counts at 418 and 151 respectively. Our new hospitalizations today was 65, which helped pushed up the 7-day average to 59.1 (highest we’ve seen).
Nothing terribly new to say about this. Keep wearing a mask. Enjoy the 4th at home with a couple of beers and some hamburgers on the grill with your family.
While eating, drinking, exercising (while keeping distance), driving alone or only with your family, swimming, giving a speech, etc.
Religious services, though still encouraged.
Voting, though still encouraged.
When security requires you to show your face (e.g. a bank, TSA checkpoint at an airport, etc).
Personal care to the facial area (e.g. dentist appointment).
Or a county with less than 20 active cases. Which aren’t any around here. Counties have to opt-out of it with a form to the state, it isn’t automatic.
Penalties include a fine, but no jail. Though, if a business asks you to leave for not wearing a mask, normal trespass laws still apply, so if you’re a punk about it, be aware. But don’t be a punk about it.
Parks and Rec to, basically, close for the month of July. After the holiday weekend, trails are open with distancing required. Playground, pools, etc will be closed.
Austin Resource Recovery (sanitation) will again suspend curbside bulk pickup. Regular trash, recycling, and compost service continues without change. If you got a notice that your curbside service is coming up, they will still honor those notices. If you didn’t get a postcard yet, you won’t for the time being.
Across the state, things seem pretty quiet. A lot of park closures for the holiday weekend. I’m expecting a flurry of convention cancellations after the State GOP convention came into the spotlight with the Texas Medical Association asking them to go virtual. Nothing moving there.
On the state level, we set another new record of hospitalizations at 7,382 (+478). Thankfully, the state’s daily new cases slightly declined to 7,915 (-161), which is still the 2nd highest daily count by a thousand. Positivity is still high—over 13%.
Hays County (San Marcos)
After the initial shocking spike, things seem to be quieting down, though still very high. I’m glad they aren’t increasing and setting new case records right now, but let’s hope that downward trend goes way down.
Williamson County (Georgetown/Round Rock)
Similarly, new cases aren’t rising, but they aren’t really going down all that much yet either. Today was the lowest number in awhile. I don’t know if there’s an underlying reason (e.g. testing access?) or what. We’ll see how it trends over the next week or so.
The county reported a record-high hospitalization level. I don’t pay close attention to Williamson County since Austin/Travis County includes the five-county MSA, including Williamson.
Travis County (Austin)
So. I wrote the above about Hays and Williamson County before Travis released their daily numbers. I was feeling a little good seeing a little tiny bit downward motion.
Then, I saw today’s Travis County dashboard.
We added 571 new cases, making it five days above 500.
We saw 5 new deaths, putting us to 133 total. Seeing daily numbers of deaths at 4, 3, 4, 5 is worrisome, like I mentioned yesterday. We did have one time hitting six in a single day earlier in the pandemic, so it isn’t a record. But, I’m nervous. I really really am hoping that our deaths won’t begin to increase and that our care of the elderly will be the difference.
We had a record 71 new hospitalizations, putting today’s census count at 415, jumping up from yesterday’s 376.
We’re also at a record 145 in the ICU and 70 on vents.
We’re probably going to see a bit more of this trend until the more recent changes (bars closing and now masks) make an impact, so hold on tight.
Get a reminder to read by e-mail
Add your name to the list below to get an e-mail reminder to read my update. It’ll just include a link the post, since sometimes I edit it a little post-publish, but remind you to check it out. Great if you’re giving up Twitter and Facebook :).
Success! You're on the list.
Whoops! There was an error and we couldn't process your subscription. Please reload the page and try again.
Harris County (Houston): ProPublica and NBC News reported that while Houston-area hospital executives said everything was fine, the situation on the ground was not. The long and short of it from this article and hearing reports from the local ABC station—running out of room and medications in the hospitals, ERs were full of folks waiting transfers to other hospitals, which ended up causing issues where EMS had to regularly wait over an hour to release a patient to the ER.
Austin Public Health had a press conference today. I wanted to highlight one particular point to start this topic.
Hospitals are running at about 70% capacity right now—general beds. They usually run at 85%. While the number of hospital beds for COVID patients is increasing, between cancelling elective procedures, fewer accidents (e.g. fewer people are driving, so fewer crashes), etc, we are currently doing okay for general capacity. A lot of what we’re talking about is where we are trending. We are trending to a place where the above is no longer true, but we’re not there yet. We’re still able to change our behavior to change the outcome, but we are running out of time.
KXAN investigated hospital capacity and (like me) wished there was more transparency about it. The reason we don’t know capacity—it’s partly about raw number of beds, but it’s also about staff. There are a few moving pieces, so Travis County and the hospital themselves are being pretty quiet.
Williamson County is at 87% ICU capacity and the article has a hospital-by-hospital breakdown.
For the overall area, the hospital chains say their 483 ICU beds are 80% full, after being at 70% last week. They are not providing hospital-by-hospital breakdowns. KXAN shared some projections suggesting that Dell Seton (UT Medical Center) and St. David’s on 32nd may run out of ICU beds this week. I haven’t seen the site that KXAN cites for these projections used elsewhere, so I don’t have a sense how much credit to give it. From earlier reports, in my head, I had 150 COVID ICU patients as a magic number of when we may be getting into a bad situation.
I think it is fair to say that this is a very fluid situation, we are definitely on the edge, and the more we can do right this second, the better that chance will be that we won’t fall over the edge.
The data includes through the weekend and the two zero marks in the chart were days that Austin did not report. I don’t know if they account for the spike following actually being over two days. In any event, assuming nothing changes, we could be seeing 1000 cases per day in Austin by the end of the month by their math. Hopefully closing bars will help flatten that down some.
Local officials will be sending texts and robocalling landlines and registered cell phones alerting everything to play it safe this weekend (e.g. stay home). They are using the Warn Central Texas system which is a collaboration of a number of counties and cities in the local area. I just got my robocall at home (yes, I have a landline) at 4:55 p.m. and my cell phone right at 5:00 p.m.
State of Texas
In terms of new cases, we blew past yesterday’s record. We had 8,076 new cases yesterday.
In the category of news that hadn’t been all that bad before that is worrisome. We had 57 deaths in Texas since yesterday. This is the second-highest daily number since we had 58 on May 14th.
For hospitalizations, we have 6,904 as of today. As usual, a new record.
Travis County (Austin)
Before getting into the current counts, I was asked about demographics of those in the hospital. From yesterday’s release of raw data tables from Austin Public Health, we can see the age breakdown that is updated weekly. (The public dashboard reports this. There was an issue that kept it from being updated for the last two weeks, but after I reached out to them, they updated it).
For the period ending on June 30th, here’s how the breakdown works out.
Percentage of those Hospitalized
It’s about evenly split between men and women (52.7%/47.3%), but 60.6% of those hospitalized are Hispanic. This again ties into the theme that the virus is both a public health issue and an economic justice issue. In Austin, Hispanic folks are more likely to be in lower economic brackets, working in essential jobs (construction, janitorial, etc), living in close quarters, and generally not have the same ability as more economically-advantaged folks.
The CommUnity clinic test result data (which I don’t like sharing the actual numbers since it is only a subset of Travis County data and a subset that does skew toward lower socioeconomic groups. It’s interesting, but incomplete) does show a substantially higher positivity rate for Hispanic vs White Non-Hispanic and a substantially higher positivity rate for those on Medicaid or uninsured vs those with commercial insurance or Medicare. I don’t know if this really means something, but everything added up, it’s still interesting to me.
To repeat myself from the State data section, today sucks.
We added 597 new cases to put us over the 10,000 mark. We set new records for hospitalizations (376, +7), ICU (133, +1), and vents (67, +3).
We did see 4 more deaths today. We’ve had 11 deaths over the last three days and our 7-day average is sneaking up—1.7 now. We’ve had worse. We had a 3-day 12-person death run back in May and we went as high as 2.71 for a 7-day average when we had 19 people die within a week. So, straight looking at the numbers, we’ve been worse off on the deaths front, but three days of 3 or 4 in a row is different enough for this “reopening wave” for me to take note. If we keep on this 3-4 per day thing, we’d be seeing record levels of fatalities. Deaths have been pretty random, numbers-wise. Even last week, we had 1 death over four days, then all of a sudden 4, 3, and 4 in a three-day span.
In short, I hope this is just a random blimp, but my ears are perked up.
Wherein I just ramble a bit
How are y’all doing?
Following the progression of this virus isn’t bothering me. Even the the stuff that should scare me—like the story about the increases in cases at child care centers—don’t bother me. My wife, Vanessa, is concerned about the next school year, but I’m not. Not because I think it is safe nor that I expect us to go back to a more or less normal school year. Mainly, that’s still six weeks away and seeing how quickly things changed back in March and April, I can only take some of these things one day at a time and that isn’t on today’s agenda.
What gets under my skin is the deniers.
People of good faith can disagree. We can discuss policy, how to stimulate the economy while staying safe. We can talk about how virtual conferencing has changed our society and whether that will continue long-term or not.
But, when people deny the basic facts. I don’t get that. The people who can’t seem to accept even a little hardship for the greater good. I can’t process that without feeling just a little hopeless. “I have to keep on living my life” where that life means eating out—inside a restaurant. “I can’t wear a mask because it fogs my glasses so I’m not going to.”
No one is happy about wearing masks.We might find some silver linings out of it, but without this event, we wouldn’t be having a conversation about mask fashion trends. But, the data says it is a small thing we can do to help prevent the spread of the virus AND be able to return to some venues of pre-pandemic life. Why not wear one then?
It’s hard. The few times I’ve left the house, I’ve had to go back inside every single time because I left without grabbing a mask from the table by the front door. Maybe you feel silly trying to tie this pink polka dot mask while someone is outside your door knocking. It’s not all that comfortable. It’s Texas, it’s hot outside. This isn’t the time of the year I’m trying to add clothing.
Like, why not wear one? I mean, really? Look at what life is like in Austin in 2020. No SXSW. No ACL. No UT graduation. No Austin Symphony Fireworks. Our internationally-renowned Central Library has been empty for 100 days. No Barton Springs or Deep Eddy. No drunken bachelorette parties on 6th (okay, maybe that one we’re fine not having).
We’re in a situation where we do need to not have these things right now. It sucks. I don’t like it. But, if by wearing a stupid mask, we can get back to normal faster, why not wear the stupid mask? If skipping a 4th of July BBQ this year means that maybe things will be better by Labor Day instead of Christmas, why not skip the BBQ? If ordering takeout instead of dining in helps everyone dine-in sooner, thus saving who knows how many local restaurants, why not order takeout instead?
Anyhow, closing thought is from Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO. No matter your opinion of the WHO right now, it doesn’t change the accuracy of the statement :
It’s been a hell of a month and a hell of a quarter.
Okay, that’s enough of that. If you’ve been reading along these posts alive in America, you don’t need a summary. Moving on.
Very minor in the grand scheme of things, Minor League Baseball announced there will be not be a 2020 season this year. MiLB is a separate entity from MLB. MLB teams are affiliated through Player Development Contracts to the various MiLB teams—the Round Rock Express is the Triple A affiliate of the Houston Astros, for example. The MLB provides and pays for the players and the coaches, while the facilities and the rest of the staff are provided and paid for by the minor league team. In other words, Round Rock provides the stage and the Astros provide the on-field talent.
Today, MLB announced they would not be providing the talent this year, so MiLB has no players to showcase. Thus, no season. (The Astros will pay their MiLB players through the end of August, though.)
The Round Rock Express, I suppose expecting this, was granted a temporary expansion team in the Texas Collegiate League. This is a wood-bat league (college usually plays metal bats) that will be playing over the summer as the Round Rock Hairy Man. Originally, the Hairy Man was going to be one of the random mascots that the Express will play as during the season for a few games. It’s named after a local legend. Anyhow, you’re not here about baseball.
Quick thing—HEB statewide will require masks for shoppers and employees, whether or not they are mandated by the local authorities.
Usually, unemployment benefits require that the individual is actively trying to land work, but that was suspended in the pandemic. Citing the recent upward motion of the virus, the TWC changed course.
Not worth a bullet on it’s own, but Governor Abbott was on KXAN (Austin’s NBC affiliate) last night and celebrated that 2/3rds of Texans were under mask mandates. I didn’t fact-check—I assume he means by population, not 2/3rds of counties. I’m going to refrain from expressing my thoughts on the Governor now praising that local officials had to invent a way to thread a needle to get these orders in place. You probably know how I feel.
I mentioned a few days ago that the criteria for the various “stages” of response had changed without announcement, marking stage 4 as 40 new hospitalizations on a 7-day rolling average instead of 20.
They announced it today.
I am a bit frustrated, though, by APH’s communication efforts. I can appreciate they are handling a situation they have never had to handle before. The announcement of the new criteria:
They included the old charts.
The new chart sets stage 4 at 40 and stage five being triggered at a hand-wavey 70-123.
On the good front, they released some additional datasets. You need an account to see them. I’ve been trying but haven’t been sent the activation link yet. From the titles, I think they are the existing data we have, but maybe it’ll include historic information. That’ll be good to compare to my manually-recorded historical information. Hopefully, I’ll have access in the next day or so.
APH had bad data on the mobile dashboard for over a week. I think they finally have it updated, but took a bit (and a call to 311 after no response previously) to get them to update it.
Anyhow, on to the data.
State of Texas
After a previous record of 5,996 on June 25th and dipping below 5,000 finally yesterday, we jumped up to 6,975 new cases.
Statewide, deaths are still looking okay. I’m still really hopeful that our efforts to help protect the older segment of population is making the big difference here.
For hospitalizations, a new record again. 6,533 in the hospital. We’ve set new daily records every day since June 12th, except for the 28th.
Our positivity rate for the state went back over 14% again.
Travis County (Austin)
On the local front, let’s see how we are doing.
Today, we had 558 new cases, the 2nd highest daily number. This was after the record 636 on Sunday and 508 yesterday.
We had 3 deaths since yesterday. That’s 7 between yesterday and today. We last had 7 over 2 days on May 12-13.
For hospitalizations, we’re at 369, up a smidge from yesterday’s 368. We’ve gone up every day from June 21st onward. A month ago, we were at 78 on May 30th.
We had 67 new hospitalizations today. That’s a new record and what concerns me the most.
There are 132 in the ICU and 64 on ventilators. Increases from 121 (+11) and 65 yesterday (-1 yay!), respectively.
Williamson County itself still won’t mandate businesses to require masks, but the cities within the county are taking action themselves. Round Rock and Cedar Park announced that masks will be mandated starting July 1. Cedar Park’s mayor shared that Georgetown, Taylor, Hutto, and Leander will issue similar orders.
The University of Texas unveiled a new website with their plans for the Fall Semester. The current plan is to kick things off at “Level 2“, the third of six states between “Normal Operations” and “End-of-Spring Closure”. Masks will be required and classes won’t have more than 40% of capacity. Students will have the option for a fully-online schedule too.
In Houston, the Archdiocese of Galveston-Houston announced four priests, including the former archbishop and a former auxiliary bishop, have tested positive as part of a small cluster at cases at their retired priest residence. 12 have tested negative and two are still outstanding. So far, not serious.
So, you know, it does require a little bit of the society coming together and decide what’s important. Is it more important for us to wear masks, or is it more important for us to send our kids to school? Is it more important to invest in contact tracing and testing, or is it more important to decide not to follow kind of the guidance that’s out there? And that’s going to be a really important set of decisions that we’re going to face in the next weeks, if not immediately.
Andy Slavitt, former director of Medicare and Medicaid
Is going to the bar this weekend more important than being able to send our kids to school in the fall?
The interview did underscore and make clear, again, that the increase in positive cases is not because of increased testing. It just isn’t true.
In terms of the statewide response, I agree with virtually every word of Ross Ramsey’s column. In the early days, I thought the state should have acted sooner, but I wasn’t terribly worried because Austin/Travis County did act. Whether or not, Gov. Abbott would do anything, it didn’t matter since the local folks were on top of things.
Then, he did act. He did what I thought was reasonable. I was happy with his reaction originally.
There were ways to account for that without a straight reopening. From day one after we closed, I knew and a lot of us knew that reopening too early because of the economy would not actually save the economy because people would be afraid to go out or they’d go out, re-trigger the pandemic, resulting in more closures.
Instead of a single, longer closure for this wave, we had a closure, a subpar reopening, and on the verge of new closures again. New York City has been closed longer, but they are in a far better position for a phased reopening than Texas. They were harder hit than Texas, but maybe not once we’re done with this.
So now, we’re seeing increasing cases, increasing hospitalizations, and while we haven’t seen an increase in deaths, we are still within the window where those deaths could have just not happened yet.
This is a slow-moving crisis. Gov. Abbott opened quickly and went against his own word by opening more faster before seeing the impact. Now, we’ve pulled back a little, but we won’t know for weeks if that was enough or not. Do we need to pull back more to ensure we’re not undercutting our efforts now? I don’t know, probably. But now it’s a political thing.
Abbott erred by getting into the mud about the salon owner. He turned his role from an emergency director to a politician. He changed the language that this was a crisis that we needed to work together as Texans to resolve to this is yet another example of right vs left, red vs blue.
And so now, the Governor is playing reactionary politics. He’s playing to his base and restricting local officials from acting. He tries to play the local card—saying that there are times where the entire state doesn’t need the same thing—while also not letting that card be played by others.
I was accused today of being a fear monger. I had to laugh a little. I don’t want to incite fear—and hope I haven’t. This isn’t anything to be scared of. This is something to be prepared for. That’s true for all emergency or crisis situations. Fear doesn’t help anything, but not being prepared for it and not taking something this serious seriously makes things far worse.
I want to get back to normal. I want my kids to go back to school. I want to go sit in a coffee shop. I want to go to church. I want a waiter to bring me coffee at breakfast after church. But, we have to get this under control and by jumping the gun, we just make it harder for ourselves longer.
A reminder that tomorrow begins Early Voting for the primary run-off (moved because of the coronavirus) and the State Senate, District 14 special election. The early voting locations are different than usual. My usual early voting spot is the local Fiesta grocery store, but because of the pandemic, Travis County is not using any grocery stores for election sites for this one. You can vote in the run-off even if you didn’t vote in the original election.
Statewide, Vice President Pence and a few others DC folks met with Governor Abbott this morning in Dallas. The meeting was added to the VP’s schedule as he was already going to be in Dallas to speak at the First Baptist Church there.
Of note, nothing, in my opinion, came out of the televised session worth talking about. The usual VP praising the Governor and everyone acknowledging Texas isn’t in a great spot. I suppose, sadly, it is notable that everyone—the Vice President, Gov. Abbott, and everyone else—were wearing masks when they greeted each other on the tarmac when Air Force Two landed.
On the data front, we had 5,357 new cases statewide—the 6th day in a row we were over 5,000. For hospitalizations, we finally did it. We didn’t set a new record for today. We’re at 5,497 in the hospital, down 26 from yesterday, making this the second-highest day we’ve had.
Our positivity rate sucks. We jumped up to 14.31%, our highest since the pandemic started. This matters to me because it is a proxy to how well we’re able to test the overall community in order to have a solid picture of what’s going on with this virus. Our goal was to be around 5-6%.
This is also evidence of what I’m going to cover in the Travis County section of the update… Moving on.
Harris County (Houston)
Friday was a weird day with data. Just not as much out there as I’d like. I jumped on my phone this morning to try to catch up on some that I hadn’t seen updated—like the Texas Medical Center’s ICU projections. I couldn’t find it. I figured maybe I was just looking on the wrong page since I usually look up everything when I’m on my computer, leaving my phone just for checking in with news outlets.
Tonight, they re-added the deleted products, but changed them. No longer does it mention the “100% base capacity” and the “surge” levels it did before. It mentions Phase I and Phase II IC, which looked to align with the previous “sustainable” and “unsustainable” surge language.
On a separate note, news out of the County Judge’s office that Judge Lina Hidalgo will be self-isolating at home after a staffer in her office tested positive.
Williamson County (Round Rock/Georgetown)
Our friends to the north in Williamson still live without a business-must-require-masks mandate. Today, they saw a notable jump in number of new cases (169), so need to watch them over the next few days to see if this is an outlier or beginning of a sharper trend.
Hays County (San Marcos)
Thankfully, while they are still seeing extremely high numbers, they aren’t continuing to increase.
I don’t know the positivity rate or testing numbers over time for Hays—are there actually fewer cases being caught or is there are other things in play. In either case, it’s still way too high.
Travis County (Austin)
Bad news to start: we’re back in a really crummy testing position.
Texas Tribune covers this across the state, but we are starting to again exhaust our testing capacity. At the Hancock site above, folks reported waiting four hours to get tested. From friends on Facebook, they were given testing appointments over a week into the future.
An interesting bit of data from their dashboard goes into the economic injustice related to this virus.
The chart above is for the week before last, but it shows ~15% positivity for those with standard health insurance or Medicare (the one for seniors), but 26-28% for those on Medicaid (low income support) or uninsured. The data has indicated that poorer folks are being hit harder by this for a variety of reasons—required to work outside the home, often living in closer quarters, majority of the bulletins from officials have been in English, etc.
The positivity is only going to increase as Austin Public Health is no longer giving testing appointments to anyone who is asymptomatic, so we’re back to only testing sick people.
Next, let’s look at our data again.
The good news—we had no deaths since yesterday.
We had 636 new cases since yesterday. The previous single-day high was 506 last Sunday. Hospitalizations are up, again, to 351. We had a record high 60 new admissions today, putting us at a 7-day average of 52.
Oddly, Austin Public Health, without an announcement that I found, changed the criteria for their stages according to their dashboard.